为什么全球原油价格上涨和跌倒？雷电竞Viva Energy Australia的供应过程铅，Jeremy Harris看着关键的司机，并解释了波动背后的力学。
原油价格的主要驱动因素始终是供求和需求。如果有太多的油或不够的需求，价格下降了;如果没有足够的油或太多需求，价格上涨。锁定步骤中的供应，需求和价格工作。
在基础层面，它是原油生产与消费之间的平衡。原油在全球生产，但有几个主要的原油产地 - 中东（沙特阿拉伯，伊朗，伊拉克，科威特，欧佩克的主要球员），西非，俄罗斯，北海和美国。
The crude from these oil-producing regions is traded globally and priced according to a few key markers. For instance, if you’re in trading in Europe, you’ll probably buy your crude oil on the ‘Brent’ marker, which is a benchmark assessment of the price of light North Sea crude. If you’re trading in America, you will likely trade off the ‘WTI’ (West Texas Intermediate) marker.
In Australia, we’ve traditionally traded crude based on the ‘Tapis’ marker, which is traded in Singapore; however, Singapore traders are starting to buy and sell regional crude off the Brent marker, reflecting the increasingly global view of the oil market.
As a major global supplier of crude, OPEC has historically used the supply-demand balance to its benefit, producing only as much as it needs to in order to satisfy demand.
然而，在2014年底，OPEC将其战略改为维持市场份额，推动原油供应大大超过需求，导致原油价格的显着下降（2014年底为105美元，目前为45美元）。市场智慧觉得这是测试替代高成本生产商的博格，主要位于相对较新的美国页岩石油工业中。
期货的作用
物理原油不是贸易油的唯一途径。虽然物理设置了标题点价格，但可以通过称为“期货”的金融工具贸易未来的油价。这些由两个主要群体交易。第一个涵盖那些生产原油（壳牌，BP）或消费油（RIO TINTO，AIRLINE）的人，并希望以未来的价格或“树篱”锁定。第二个是出于某种原因的投机者，认为价格将在未来上涨或下降并相应地进行交易。
The speculators tend to have a far greater influence than hedgers. For instance, if they look at the global supply-demand balance and speculate that supply will increase, they’ll take a position that the price of crude oil will go down further so they ‘short the market’. If everybody follows, including the physical traders, the price will indeed go down.
这是一个鸡肉和蛋问题，即期货交易对物业市场的影响。没有明确的答案，因为它是具体情况，并且经常受到市场情绪或政治堕落的无形资产的推动。
Politics, economics and the weather
Other factors influencing global crude oil prices include intangibles such as political events, economic sentiment and even the weather.
政治事件可以在长期和短期内影响全球原油价格，并在过去导致了良好的宣传“石油冲击”。
Likewise, economic decisions can also impact crude oil prices in the long and short term, but more from the ‘demand’ side. With the slowing of the Chinese economy and resultant reduction of industrial production, China is importing less diesel and thereby withdrawing demand from the market. As a consequence, overall supply has exceeded demand and the price of crude oil has dropped accordingly.
其他无形资产，例如天气往往对油价产生更短，区域影响，往往会影响特定产品。例如，如果日本冬天很冷，人们会燃烧更多的加热油来保持温暖，导致该产品区域价格短期飙升。
As you can see, it’s always linked back to the impact the event will have on the supply-demand balance.
The table below, created by the AIP, shows a range of factors that impact either supply or demand.
Key factors influencing international crude oil prices
| Changes in regional and global supply balances in both the short and longer term |
Changes in economic conditions/sentiment in both the short and longer term |
| 自然灾害，战争，内乱和罢工的主要供应中断 |
新的石油迪斯科veries |
| 季节性需求和需求尖刺 |
投资新的石油生产/精炼能力 |
| Inventory management |
Future global demand and supply balances |
| Shipping availability and freight rates |
全球经济增长和条件 |
| 市场交易活动和策略 |
石油生产成本和精炼 |
| Short term decisions of oil producing countries, National Oil Companies (NOCs) and nations holding strategic reserves |
技术进步 |
| Alternative fuel developments |
Long term policies of NOCs and oil producing nations |
| 监管和政府政策 |
Population growth |
资料来源：澳大利亚石油研究所
How does this affect the Australian market?
Ultimately, crude oil prices fluctuate in response to changes in supply and demand, with lots of interconnected factors at play. It’s not easy to forecast which way prices will move; nevertheless, being aware of the drivers and keeping abreast of market indicators should allow Australian companies to maximise on the lows and ride out any highs.
For more information about factors that influence the price of fuel, please visitwww.aip.com.auorwww.iea.org.
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